Confronting Climate Change in the North East

From lush Berkshire valleys to the sandy Cape Cod shore, the climate of Massachusetts is changing. Records show that spring is arriving earlier, summers are growing hotter and winters are becoming warmer and less snowy. These changes are consistent with global warming, an increasingly urgent phenomenon driven by heat-trapping emissions from human activities.

Click here to see the Union of Concerned Scientists report on how Massachusetts will be affected.

Working Group 11 Contribution to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2007
Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
Summary for Policymakers
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM6avr07.pdf

Hubble telescope's top ten greatest space photographs

The Sombrero Galaxy - 28 million light years from Earth - was voted best picture taken by the Hubble telescope. The dimensions of the galaxy, officially called M104, are as spectacular as its appearance. It has 800 billion suns and is 50,000 light years across.

The Ant Nebula, a cloud of dust and gas whose technical name is Mz3, resembles an ant when observed using ground-based telescopes. The nebula lies within our galaxy between 3,000 and 6,000 light years from Earth.

In third place is Nebula NGC 2392, called Eskimo because it looks like a face surrounded by a furry hood. The hood is, in fact, a ring of comet-shaped objects flying away from a dying star. Eskimo is 5,000 light years from Earth.

At four is the Cat's Eye Nebula, which looks like the eye of disembodied sorcerer Sauron from Lord of the Rings.

The Hourglass Nebula, 8,000 light years away, has a pinched-in-the-middle look because the winds that shape it are weaker at the centre.

In sixth place is the Cone Nebula. The part pictured here is 2.5 light years in length (the equivalent of 23 million return trips to the Moon).

The Perfect Storm, a small region in the Swan Nebula, 5,500 light years away, described as 'a bubbly ocean of hydrogen and small amounts of oxygen, sulphur and other elements'.

Starry Night, so named because it reminded astronomers of the Van Gogh painting. It is a halo of light around a star in the Milky Way.

The glowering eyes from 114 million light years away are the swirling cores of two merging galaxies called NGC 2207 and IC 2163 in the distant Canis Major constellation.

The Trifid Nebula. A 'stellar nursery', 9,000 light years from here, it is where new stars are being born.

MIT energy initiative:
http://web.mit.edu/erc/docs/erc-report-060502.pdf

A proactive scenario for our region's environment:
http://www.env-ne.org/ENE_Climate_Change_Roadmap_New_England_Canada.htm

British report on global warming:
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_cl imate_change/sternreview_index.cfm

Cross Border Indicators of Climate Change over the Past Century:
Northeastern United States and Canadian Maritime Region

Click here to download the pdf created by The Climate Change Task Force of the Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment in cooperation with Environment Canada and Clean Air-Cool Planet.

Mother Nature Bats Last!

By Marnie Stanton, Vineyard Conservation Almanac, with special thanks to Dr. George Woodwell for his detailed additions and edits.

“If we continue on this course the biophysical systems of the earth will change in a catastrophic way. The changes will come rapidly and will overwhelm us within decades. ” So began Dr.George M.Woodwell’s talk before 60 island residents at the St. Andrews church on Sunday, March 5.

Dr. Woodwell, one of the world’s foremost authorities on climate change, and founder and retired Director of The Woods Hole Research Center, as well a founder of two other environmental groups, the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Environmental Defense Fund, was invited to the island by Bart Smith and the St. Andrew’s Episcopal Church.

He came to the Vineyard with a mission to wake us up! If it weren’t for the war this issue of climate change would be the big news, he told the audience. The earth is warming rapidly and the consequences are that most plants and animals that usually can adapt genetically will not be able to keep pace with the changes, he warned.

The earth’s atmosphere is made up of about 80% nitrogen and 20% oxygen. There is in addition a small percentage of other “trace’ gases including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. In contrast to nitrogen and oxygen, several of these trace gases absorb radiant heat and affect the temperature of the earth. Changes in their concentrations, especially the concentration of carbon dioxide, are the cause of the climatic disruption. . The atmosphere contains about 750 billon tons of carbon as carbon dioxide.  This size of this pool of carbon is affected by exchanges with the oceans and with plants and soils on land. Now, with the massive release of  carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels worldwide the  pool of carbon in the atmosphere is increasing   by 3- 5 billion tons annually. Although the concentration of carbon dioxide seems very low, less than 0.04 of one percent of the atmosphere by volume, the increase, now more than 30% over the last century, has warmed the earth’s surface by a global average of 1 degree centigrade. That may not sound like much but Dr. Woodwell was quick to point out that the trend, if it is allowed to continue, will change the earth into a different planet.

The warming is not uniform over the earth. At the equator the energy from the sun is absorbed by the evaporation of water.  The water vapor is carried in the normal circulation of the atmosphere into the higher latitudes where the vapor condenses and releases its heat, warming the higher latitudes differentially.  While there is little change in the temperature in the tropics, the middle and higher latitudes are warmed significantly.  As a result, a two or more degree warming is affecting sections of the normally cold Arctic. That increased temperature is melting the Arctic Ocean ice cover, Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers worldwide. The speed of the melting glaciers in Greenland which holds a huge percentage of the earth’s fresh water is astounding the scientists. There is real concern that the rapid melting of the Greenland glacier will raise sea level by several feet over the next decades.

As the bright, reflective ice cover of the Arctic Ocean melts the dark sea surface absorbs more heat. The effects on climate of the northern hemisphere are very difficult to predict, but it is clear that the changes speed the climatic disruption. As the northern tundra warms its vast quantities of carbon are released through decay into the atmosphere exacerbating the problem and speeding up the heating process even more.

In addition to the ice melting, other parts of the earth’s continental centers north and south of the equator are suffering from extreme droughts which are generating huge wildfires. Closer to the equator the storms systems are feeding off of the warmer ocean waters creating catastrophic storms, such as Katrina and Wilma.

Another consequence of this increase of the earth’s temperature is the effect on the northern forests. Insect plaques such as the Spruce Bark Beetle have decimated vast stands of spruce trees in the northern climates eventually killing the trees.  This die off results in the further decay of organic matter stored in the forests and soils and dumps more carbon into the atmosphere, speeding the climatic disruption.

The ice melt has poured tons of fresh water into the oceans changing the density, temperature, and salinity. As the fresh water enters the sea water the salinity becomes diluted making the water lighter. The lighter water doesn’t sink as fast and the natural circulation of the world’s deep bottom water is slowed down. It is believed that the Gulf Stream will be greatly affected by this change, eventually slowing it on its northern and eastern flow across the Atlantic. Some scientists believe that the flow of the Gulf Stream   may well diminish over the next years, as it has in the glacial ages past, and result in a massive cooling of Scandinavia and north western Europe.Unlike the Arctic which is floating ice, if the Antarctic ice shelves were to melt and fall into the ocean the sea level rise would be around 20 feet. An additional 20 foot sea level rise will come from the glaciers melting in Greenland. That is 40 extra feet of water coming ashore. No small amount when you consider all the low lying areas around the globe.

Once Dr. Woodwell had explained the earths warming, and its consequences, he switched to the political climate in this country. He pointed out that the run away climate change is ignored by most of the world. Commercial interests in continuing the fossil fueled age deny the problem and have effectively undermined the scientific findings in the eyes of the public. The current US administration continues to obstruct progress in reducing emissions and has systematically lied and attempted to control statements by governmentally supported scientists who see the problem as the overwhelming public issue of our time.,.

We need to stop using fossil fuels now, he said, not years from now. Alternative energies need to be developed, subsidized and mandated. There should be a carbon tax; he suggested that would encourage reductions. When questioned about nuclear energy he was quick to point out how intrinsically unstable it is. It is not the answer he said. There is too much radioactivity and a reactor meltdown could render 10,000 surrounding miles uninhabitable for hundreds of years. Also what do you do with the nuclear waste, he asked? Where do those spent rods go? We still don’t have an answer. Lastly he pointed out the huge expense of building the reactors and maintaining them.

Getting back to nature he spoke about the forests. We need to maintain the forests not cut them down for farming. He argued that we can and should preserve the remaining primary forests globally, obtaining our lumber and pulp from existing secondary forests managed for that purpose.  Expanding the planting of forests is one easy way of contributing to the control of the heat trapping gases in the atmosphere.

Since the leadership is not coming from the top, Dr. Woodwell stressed the need for the grassroots population to take action now. It is possible to have a new world, he said, but we all need to work to make it happen. What do you say!

The Vineyard depends almost entirely on imported energy.  Two consequences of this are a large and steadily increasing annual energy bill as well as concerns about the reliability of the underwater transmission cables to continue to meet our growing demand for electricity. 

To look for solutions to these challenges, The Vineyard Energy Project commissioned a 10 Year Energy Action Plan from Christine Donovan, a widely respected energy planner, who worked with a team of consultants to identify realistic opportunities specific to the Vineyard.  Their study provides the basis for a compelling action plan for us to reduce energy needs and increase the use of local renewable energy resources. A summary of these opportunities is outlined below.

Energy efficiency is the “best bang for the buck” when seeking alternatives to traditional consumption patterns and reliance on conventional fuels. Achieving even greater efficiency than planned by the Cape Light Compact will require aggressive and ambitious programs. 

• Reduce electric consumption for lighting by 50% within 1 year by replacing 15 incandescent lights/building with compact fluorescents. Reduces electricity needs by 7%.

• Discourage high residential consumption of electricity through education programs and by charging a higher rate for those who use unusually large amounts of electricity.

• Improve the efficiency of existing buildings by implementing energy/building performance upgrades for at least 1500 homes within 5 years.

• Increase the share of high performance buildings that consume at least 30% less energy than typical new construction practices by phasing in new performance standards.

More than 130 households, managers of public buildings, and/or business owners on the Vineyard have learned first-hand how to supply energy to their building using the sun. 

• Produce 1% of all electricity used on the Island by 2015 from the sun: install an additional 500 2.4-kilowatt systems. (2.4 kw is the same size as the Steamship Authority system.)

• Encourage the use of solar hot water so that as water heaters are replaced, at least 1/5 of new heaters are supplemented with heat from the sun. 

As an island located in a very strong wind “regime,” any serious attempt to develop renewable energy on the Island should include wind power.

• Install 10- 10 kW small-scale wind turbines over the next decade, to help residents and visitors become familiar with current wind technologies.  Provides .1% of our electricity.
  

• Install 10- 100 kW wind turbines as a farm initiative: supplying multiple benefits to farmers and helping to support agriculture on the Island.  Provides 1% of our electricity.

• Install 10- 1.5 MW wind turbines as a longer-term initiative:  demonstrating the use of turbines onshore, in locally acceptable locations.  Provides 22% of our electricity.

A variety of biomass materials could be used to produce energy, while simultaneously addressing forest health, habitat improvement, and waste disposal issues.

• Explore the potential for using biomass (wood) harvested on a sustainable basis from the State Forest for fuel for heating schools, combined with a portion of clean wood waste.

• Collect the organic portion of the solid waste stream (commercial food waste, soiled paper, leaves and yard waste) and produce compost: reducing the amount of waste trucked off-island, and offsetting the trucking of compost and soil amendment to the Island.

The use of fossil fuels for transportation is projected to increase unless aggressive and extraordinary measures are taken to switch to alternative fuels and to reduce the amount people rely on personal vehicles for transportation. 

• Implement an aggressive program that seeks to reduce future growth in the total vehicle miles traveled per day to 1% per year. (2% is projected by transportation planners)

• Stimulate the use of hybrid vehicles and biodiesel fuel for transportation on the island through an innovative education, market development, and fuel-switching program which includes a biodiesel demonstration program for island buses.

Several actions are needed to create a public policy, regulatory, and consumer education framework for development and implementation of the 10-Year Energy Action Plan. Initial actions needed to “kick off” the plan include:

• Consider establishing an Energy District of Critical Planning Concern (DCPC).  Such a designation would provide a vehicle to facilitate and assist in certain policy, regulatory, and funding mechanisms needed to implement efficiency and renewable energy initiatives in the future.

• Continue a widespread education and outreach initiative designed to educate island decision-makers, residents and visitors on the energy challenges confronting the Island and multi-year strategies for addressing the challenges.

• Continue to offer energy education programs in schools to educate future consumers about the energy choices they will face.

The Vineyard Energy Project
508-693-3002
www.vineyard-unplugged.org

Vineyard Energy Project - Climate Change Talk
Article by Marnie Stanton - Vineyard Conservation Almanac

Nothing can pull one's head out of the sand of the beautiful beaches of Martha's Vineyard faster than professor Daniel Kammen's view of Climate Change. On March 2, a packed audience gathered at the Whaling Church to hear him speak. Hailing from UC Berkley and brought to the island as part of Kate Warner's Vineyard Energy Project, he kept the audience spellbound with the clarity of his facts and data. “There are surprises in the Greenhouse gases that the scientist are just now beginning to learn about. Things that can go really wrong,” he said. However, Kammen's overriding message was that changes can be made to improve the environment which will make a difference.

He then proceeded to meticulously document the impact of human activities on global warming and climate change. He noted that consumption of fossil fuels now puts 700 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. CO2 is a potent trapper of a host of gases which produce a greenhouse effect in the atmosphere – temperature change follows.

Before human influence, the natural amount of CO2 in the atmosphere was 500 billion tons, with 380 billion tons of the carbon being absorbed back into the oceans. One danger is that current climate changes could release that ocean storehouse of carbon.

The kind of climate change we are seeing today does not so much involve the threat of uniform temperature increase around the globe, but rather increased variation of temperature extremes world wide. That is, extreme events are becoming more common. Because of the rotation of the earth, heat is transported to the poles, which are now experiencing more dramatic warming than at the equator.

Professor Kammen ominously pointed out that the decade of the nineties was the hottest in 100 years.   In 2002, for the first time in recorded history, a ship sailed unimpeded across the Arctic Ocean. If we continue “business as usual” we can expect a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 and the transformation of the north pole to a seasonal ice cap within just a lifetime. Data indicate that the natural system can recover from a doubling of CO2, but that the quadrupling scenario will cause the system to seek a new “stable state” where the   circulation of the oceans' currents will be altered or even halted, effectively “turning off biology on the planet.” Not a pretty picture.

Kammen also noted that there is emerging evidence that climate changes can occur quite rapidly, on the order of 10 years for certain events. And it is the increased frequency of more extreme event which appears to be pushing the probability of climate change along these shorter time frames.

Even with all the bad news, Daniel Kammen was surprisingly optimistic. One of the “surprises in the greenhouse” is that, if we succeed in making positive choices, it looks like climate change can solve itself.   But we need to think differently and embrace new ways to change the global energy story.   We need to reduce CO2 emissions by 70%, not an easy task in a world community where the Kyoto Protocols are seeking a mere 7% decrease in the rate of increase of CO2!   Widescale adoption of alternative sources of energy will also have to happen. Energy conservation and energy efficiency measures hold tremendous hope, representing a potential economic change on the order of $200 billion per year.   Hydrogen fuel cell technology for heating and transportation is also a tremendously positive direction, provided the creation of the hydrogen is not from fossil fuels but from renewable sources like wind, solar, and even from biological sources like microbe “farms”. Fuel cells in automobiles could not only serve as a source of power for the vehicle, but also be hooked up to the home for heating and electrical needs. He disputed the current thinking that alternative energy sources represent bad economics, citing the importance of diversifying our energy “portfolio”. The new energy economy would spawn innovation, create new jobs, and jumpstart the economy. Professor Kammen's message: “new innovation almost always generates new growth.”

For more information on this subject see www.climatehotmap.org and www.enn.org , or search for “IPCC” under energy research lab.

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